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Fantasy (REDRAFT) – Consensus Overall QB Rankings

 

The brains over at Toilets To Titles all decided to put together this year’s team of Fantasy Football Redraft Rankers.  For the 2024 NFL season, our team of rankers consist of:

  • Justin Stephens: @JustinFF_
  • Coach Schepps: @CoachSchepps
  • Mark Simon: @MTSimon
  • Dillon “Wicked” Carlson: @wicked_dynasty
  • Nate Wallen: @nate_dirt19
  • AJ Cola: @AJ_FFball

Each of these analysts ranked their top 24 QB’s for the up and coming 2024 Redraft Season. Then Mark – the Wizard behind the scenes – worked his mathematical and statistical magic to aggregate those rankings on the website for you at toiletstotitles.com.

Justin and Mark discussed the top 12 Quarterbacks on this week’s episode (embedded above) of the Toilets To Titles Flagship Show on Tuesday Night and were even joined by Wicked toward the end.  In case you missed it, here is a rundown of some of our reasoning for our rankings…

Consensus Overall QB Redraft Rankings:

***It is important to note that we are basing these numbers and thoughts off of 1 QB Redraft formats. But the stats and many of the opinions will still work for Superflex Redraft leagues as well.

12) Brock Purdy (SF)

6th in fantasy points per game last season.  3rd most passing TDs with 31.  4,280 passing yards (good for 5th).  Played every game ending as the QB 6 overall.

  • Highest Rank – 9 (Mark)
  • Lowest Rank – 14 (Coach)
  • AJ – 11
  • Justin, Wicked, Nate – 13

Mark’s thoughts – 7 out of 17 weeks played he finished within the top-10 of QBs in five weeks having at least 3 TDs.  All the weapons on SF just give him the opportunity to score TDs in bunches and I think that situation keeps him in the top 10.

Justin’s thoughts – Only 5 games outside of the top-15 and two of those were against top tier passing defenses.  So he’s good enough to not lose you games.  Ten top-10 games, so most weeks he’s good enough to win you games.  Nine of those ten were actually top-7 with seven finishes in the top-6 (top half of the QB1 performers) so some weeks he is even good enough to win you the positional battle and the game.  Yet here he sits as the last starting QB for fantasy, making him cheap enough to go after.  Low risk, high reward.  Even if they lose Aiyuk (and I don’t think he is going anywhere), having CMC on your team automatically makes you a fantasy startable QB.  Even if you are Mr. Irrelevant.

11) Justin Herbert (LAC)

8th in fantasy points per game last season.  The Chargers had the 3rd most passing plays per game last season.  Only the 17th most TD passes with 20.  3,133 passing yards (18th).  Missed the last 4 games last season finishing as QB 17 overall.

  • High – 7 (Mark)
  • Low – 17 (Justin)
  • Nate – 9
  • Wicked – 11
  • Coach – 12
  • AJ – 16

Justin’s thoughts – We have heard the narrative all offseason that new Chargers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, LOVE to run the football.  While I do think that a lot of that is just narrative and they both ran the ball because of the type of players and talent they had to work with on their respective teams, I also do take a lot of it to heart because the only real difference they have with this roster compared to some rosters they’ve had in the past is that this roster has a QB that can throw… BUT he has no real proven targets anymore.  Mike Williams is with the Jets, Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett are in Chicago, and Ekeler is in Washington.  That is 320 of Herbert’s 456 attempts.  So over 70% of his targets are now gone with those four players alone.  Alex Erickson, Keelan Doss, and Nick Vannett are all Free Agents now as well.  There is another 8.8%.  I know I likely would try to lean on my run game as well.  Plus, rush effectively = running the clock out and keeping the opposing offense off the field and keeping your young team in the game for longer.  So, it’s also the smart play for a team that is expecting to lose a lot in the first real year of their rebuild.

Mark’s thoughts – The easy narrative to get behind is Harbaugh loves his big boys up front and to run the ball, both of which are true.  But I’m a believer that a good running game helps the passing game.  By adding Joe Alt in the draft it immediately boosts the protection for Herbert.  I believe in that talent, and I think going from an awful head coach in Staley to a winner like Harbaugh is only going to benefit Herbert.

10) Kyler Murray (ARZ)

Only played the final 8 games of the season last year and finished as the QB 12 in fantasy points per game played.  Almost identical per game numbers as the 2022 season.  6.7 yards per attempt was 26th in the league.  Had he had a full season, he would’ve had the 5th most rushing yards on the season per his average.

  • High – 7 (Justin & AJ)
  • Low – 15 (Nate)
  • Wicked – 9
  • Coach – 10
  • Mark – 11

Justin’s thoughts – As stated before, his numbers on a per game basis were almost identical in 2024 as they were in 2023, even after the injury and long time away from the field.  Now give him a weapon like Marvin Harrison Jr. and watch this man COOK!!!  I have him ranked a few spots higher than most because I want him this season.  I think the 9, 10, 11 area is a fair number given the question marks from his past, but he’s never had a receiver like we assume MHJ will be.  Michael Wilson had strong games from time to time last year proving he can be a solid WR2 for the Cardinals and Trey McBride is primed for a 3rd year breakout.  So take Murray as the QB 10 off the board and enjoy the great value he’ll bring you most weeks.

Mark’s thoughts – I’m probably a little lower on him then I should be but that’s from buyers remorse.  I need to see him for a full season again before I jump on board.  The concerning thing for me from last year was the lack of rushing.

9) Anthony Richardson (IND)

16th in fantasy points per game played (was 1st if you only count the 2 games that he played in full as he left early with an injury in the other 2).  Finished 26th overall in rushing yards for QB’s.  Had 7 Total TD’s to only 2 turnovers.

  • High – 5 (AJ)
  • Low – 16 (Justin)
  • Nate – 6
  • Wicked – 7
  • Coach – 9
  • Mark – 14

Justin’s thoughts

  • Torn Meniscus, Right Knee, High School
  • Right throwing shoulder, No Details but presumed
  • AC joint based on the rest of this history, High School
  • AC Sprain/Clavicle Fracture, throwing shoulder, High
  • School (This is the injury that likely caused the high level of scar tissue.
  • 2021 (Florida), Missed all of Spring Practices with severe Hamstring injury.
  • 2021 (Florida), Reinjured the hamstring, missed 2 games.
  • 2021 (Florida), Concussion during a game, but did not miss the next week.
  • 2021 (Florida), Sprained his right knee while dancing, missed 2 games.
  • 2021 (Florida), Right knee, tore the meniscus off the bone, but only missed 1 game for that. (End of the season. Had surgery a couple weeks later.
  • 2022 (Florida), tweaked his ankle but didn’t miss any extra games.
  • 2022 (Florida), Stinger during a game, but came back in and didn’t miss any extra games.
  • 2022 (Florida), Hamstring, same as before only this time possibly grade 2 even though he played on definitely affected his play.
  • 2023 (Colts) 2nd Concussion, missed 1 game.
  • 2023 (Colts) Right shoulder, Type III AC Sprain, missed 12 games.
  • Rumors of another AC sprain in high school that was never reported.
  • Grand total… 3 (Maybe 4) AC Sprain issues with heavy  scar tissue in his throwing shoulder.
  • 2 (Reported) Concussions.
  • 3 injuries to his right knee (2 were major).
  • 1 broken clavicle
  • And the same hamstring that keeps popping up.

All this and he isn’t even 22 yet… But yeah.  If the man can stay healthy, he’ll be great for your fantasy team.  But you’re spending a high pick for him in a 1 QB league that would likely be the area you would be getting players like Mark Andrews, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, or Tank Dell instead (according to Fantasy Pros current ADP).  The risk is extremely high here for a position that matters so little.  Get your solid RB 2 or weekly Flex player and wait several more rounds to get Brock Purdy or even a deeper guy that’s actually going to play.  My FINAL POINT: current career total fantasy points… AR=76.68, Will Levis=118.02 (and Will Levis wasn’t very good most of his rookie season).

Mark’s thoughts – Boom/Bust.  If he can stay healthy sky’s the limit but injuries have piled up and he’s only got 4 games under his NFL belt.

8)  Jordan Love (GB)

5th overall in fantasy points per game.  Played in every game last season finishing as the QB 4 overall.  #7 in passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs.  4th highest play-action completion percentage.

  • High – 7 (Nate)
  • Low – 12 (Wicked)
  • Justin, Coach & Mark – 8
  • AJ – 9

Mark’s thoughts – I expect a little regression but you can’t ignore the 32 touchdowns passes thrown especially with the questionable WR core going into the season.  Green Bay had 6 Rushing TDs total last year that didn’t come from Love, if Jacob’s can stay healthy that number should go up significantly thereby taking away some from Love.  I still think he’s good enough to finish top 10, but just closer to the bottom of it than the top.

Justin’s thoughts – His play-action completion percentage was really the biggest key to his overall fantasy success.  This means his success will likely pivot on the success of Josh Jacobs.  There have been a lot of similarities between Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs over their careers.  Honestly, my ranking of 8 overall is probably low.  He likely finishes in the top 5 again, but with so many good top end QBs this year, I’m using the “Sophomore Slump” as an excuse… which is also ridiculous considering he spent 67 years under Aaron Rodgers before actually getting the start.

6 <Tied> ) Joe Burrow (CIN)

24th in points per game played. 25th in passing yards per game.  Really high efficiency rating against Man Coverage, really bad against Zone Coverage.  Missed the last 7 games of the season finishing 25th overall.

  • High – 4 (Mark)
  • Low – 11 (Justin)
  • Coach & AJ – 7
  • Wicked & Nate – 8

Justin’s thoughts – Jake Browning finished with almost identical numbers as Burrow on a per game basis.  Only 15.8 fewer yards passing per game, and 1 more point per game than Burrow.  Now Burrow is coming off of a rare wrist injury. It was a torn ligament in his throwing hand, but the surgery that it required affected the bone that the ligament was connected to. The Bengals returned to practice yesterday and of course the players and Burrow all say he is throwing well with heat and looking good. However, Dr. Jesse Morse of the Fantasy Doctors told us right here on the T2T Network on TGIF (Weekly in-season injury update show) that he may never be right again. I was scoffed at for repeating that several times this offseason and now BOOM!!! Yesterday morning “X” we were hit with this Tweet from John Frascella of Bleacher Report and Fansided… “BREAKING:  (LOL… Only “Breaking” if you don’t follow T2T)

Per discussion with my Cincinnati source this morning:

  • Bengals QB Joe Burrow’s wrist will “NEVER be the same.
  • “Joe’s surgery in LA was not to fix his injury, but to make sure the bone grows correctly. Joe will always be at risk of injury because his bone has to grow back and that could take two years. His playing will all be off of risk.”

I did further research on the injury and discovered that even after the bone grows and even if it grows correctly, he still likely will never have the same heat, or accuracy, or strength that he once had.

Mark’s thoughts – I don’t think Joe was right at all last year. Burrow averaged a whole 8 points per game better the season prior. I’m not going to rank him just assuming he’s going to get hurt again because at that point he probably shouldn’t be in the rankings at all. So if he stays healthy he’s still Joe Cool with a ton of talent inside of him. He looked more than fine in the first few videos that surfaced even hit us with a behind the back pass.

6 <Tied> ) Dak Prescott (DAL) 

4th most pass attempts per game last season. #1 in Red Zone attempts and passing TD’s (36). 3rd in passing yards. An incredible number of his overall stats and efficiency stats were in the top 8 of all QB’s across the board. He played every game finishing as the QB 2 overall on the season.

  • High – 4 (Coach)
  • Low – 12 (Nate)
  • Mark – 5
  • Justin –
  • AJ – 8
  • Wicked – 10

Mark’s thoughts – They let Pollard go, didn’t draft a running back, brought back an aging Zeke. They are going to need to throw, throw, throw!

Justin’s thoughts – He’s only had 1 season in his 8 year career where he’s finished worse than 13th overall in points per game. He is sorely underrated every year and continues to find ways to win fantasy matchups for me year in and year out. Unfortunately I won’t have many shares this year because he finally finished extremely high, so everyone’s reaction will be to draft him extremely high. He will likely regress more back to the average. I have him at QB 6 mostly because I may need to rank him higher to get him, but I love having him on my roster. The consistency at the position is lovely to have.

5) CJ Stroud (HOU)

Finished 9th in points per game played. 8th in passing yards per game. Missed 2 games finishing as the QB 11 overall on the season. 8th overall in passing yards with 4,108 even with the games missed.

  • High – 2 (Justin)
  • Low – 10 (Mark & AJ)
  • Nate – 3
  • Wicked – 5
  • Coach – 6

Justin’s thoughts – If you take away the first game of his career (At Baltimore for that matter), take away the game where he was injured early against the Jets and his first game back from injury against the Titans, then Stroud ends the season as the QB 3 in Points Per Game. Also, his last 6 complete games were nearly a full 6 points per game better than the first six games he played in the 12 games that I’m considering to be viable and measurable games. Now, let’s add Stefon Diggs and 2nd round OT Blake Fisher out of ND to help give him even more time in that backfield… He’s just going to be picking away at defenses and eating them alive! He will likely hit a “Sophomore Slump” but even if he regresses by 2 points a game (34 points on the season) then he’s still easily a top 6 QB. So the High floor/High ceiling is there. Very little risk with very high rewards. His full season pace would’ve been 4,655 and 26 even with counting the partial game, 1st game of his career, and game off the injury.

Mark’s thoughts -Top 10 QB 5 out of the 18 weeks last season Top 5 QB 2 weeks last season. He’s a stud and will continue to get better but it’s just so hard to get in the top 5 when you don’t rush at all. Goff 4500 yds and 30 TDs Tua 4600 yds 29 TDs. Both barely cracked top 10. He had 2 games over 2 TDs last year, one was in the playoffs. Just don’t see his TDs increasing that drastically to get him there especially with Mixon joining Houston.

3 <Tied> ) Jalen Hurts (PHI)

3rd in rushing yards for QBs with 605. 15 Rushing TDs was 1st (Tied with Josh Allen but more than double 3rd place Joshua Dobbs with 6). 3,858 passing yards and 23 passing TDs (14th and 13th in the league respectively). 2nd in fantasy points per game. He played in every game last year (Less than a half in the final game against the Giants for rest) and finished as the QB 3 overall.

  • High – 2 (AJ)
  • Low – 5 (Coach)
  • Justin, Mark & Wicked – 3
  • Nate – 4

Mark’s thoughts – Top 3 QB in back to back seasons, no need to waste time talking about it he’s one of the big 3 period.

Justin’s thoughts – Let’s pretend that Kelce was the reason the “Tush Push” was successful and not the 600 pound squatting QB. And let’s pretend Saquan comes in and takes most of Hurt’s goalline carries away. Let’s pretend he only gets 5 rushing TDs this year instead of 15. And let’s even take away the 15 rushing yards he would’ve had on those 10 TDs we are taking away. That is a 75 point hit to Hurts. Then he would still be the QB 10… Oh, but wait. Now they have Saquan to catch the ball out of the backfield and to get receiving TDs (2 per year over his career with a bad team). And Saquan will help them move the ball and stay on the field to put them in more scoring situations and Hurts will get those residual points as well. Hurts is AT WORST a QB 5 on the season. That’s his floor. But I don’t see a lot of the bad things happening and I do see a world where a lot of the good things do happen.

3 <Tied> ) Lamar Jackson (BAL)

#1 in rushing yards and rushing yards per game for QBs. Ravens had the 2nd fewest team passing plays and were #1 in game script at +6.17 (typically leading toward more of a rushing attack). 3,678 passing yards (15th) and 24 passing TDs (11th). 3rd in fantasy points per game. Lamar missed only 1 game (rest game in week 18) and finished as the QB 5 overall.

  • High – 1 (Nate)
  • Low – 6 (Mark)
  • Coach – 2
  • AJ – 3
  • Justin & Wicked – 4

Mark’s thoughts – He’s a great regular season fantasy QB, if he stays healthy he’s a top 5 QB if he doesn’t he’s not it’s that simple. I put him at 6 just because with the amount of running he does he has the tendency to miss a game or two and depending what King Henry looks like could eat into some of his yards.

Justin’s thoughts – Rush QBs that stay healthy are fantasy gold. It’s why people are willing to risk it with AR. But with Lamar, we have a much better history of seeing him stay healthy. He’s a better passer than AR as well meaning he can take longer to decide to run. He has the veteran knowledge of knowing when to get down and when to throw it away. His injury history isn’t nearly as long or severe as AR’s and he is nearly 6 years older than AR. AR wishes he had the body of a 27 year old Lamar Jackson so he wouldn’t hurt so much in the mornings. Again, I am a late round QB guy in redraft so I won’t get any shares of Lamar, but if you are going to risk a high pick on a running QB, take this one.

2) Patrick Mahomes (KC)

3rd most pass attempts. 6th in passing yards (4,184) and 8th in passing TDs (27). 7th for QBs in rushing yards. Had a negative regression of 0 rushing TDs. Only missed 1 game (Week 18 rest game) and finished QB 8 overall.

  • High – 1 (Coach)
  • Low – 5 (Justin)
  • Mark, Wicked & Nate – 2
  • AJ – 4

Justin’s thoughts – What more needs to be said. Mr. Consistency. Getting more weapons. Even with bad weapons he finds a way. Never really gets hurt and when he does it’s a fluke and he plays anyway. Pass happy offense because they have Mahomes… Even when they are up because they have become entitled pricks. But also, it’s easy to become entitled when you win so damned much.

Mark’s thoughts – In the worst regular season the chiefs have had since he became QB he still finished as QB 8 overall give me that floor every day. Another one of the Big 3 and lookout he added another speed demon to his WR core expect his numbers to tick up this season.

1 ) Josh Allen (BUF) 

#1 in deep ball attempts. 4,306 passing yards (4th), 29 Passing TDs (5th). Tied for 1st in rushing TDs with 15. 4th in rushing yards with 524. Played in every game finishing as the fantasy QB 1 overall.

  • High – 1 (Justin, Mark, Wicked & AJ)
  • Low – 5 (Nate)
  • Coach – 3

Justin’s thoughts – Give him a large regression and take away Diggs and add Keon Coleman and Ray Davis and he will still be a top 6 QB most weeks and top 10 nearly every week, and Top 2 overall on the season. His numbers and the team’s win/loss record was better when they didn’t try to force feed Diggs anyway. I’m not saying their roster is better without him, but they weren’t as good when they tried to feature him rather than use him as a decoy.

Mark’s thoughts – Number 1 overall. In the past 4 seasons he’s finished as Number 1 overall 3 times the year he didn’t, number 2. Do we need to say more?

 

Stay tuned for more as the guys will continue to add rankings, episodes, and articles for all of their 2024 Redraft Rankings at all of the typical Redraft Fantasy Football positions.

 

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