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Fantasy (REDRAFT) – Consensus Overall RB Rankings (15 – 28)

UPDATED 05/28/24

The brains over at Toilets to Titles all decided to put together this year’s team of Fantasy Football Redraft Rankers.  For the 2024 NFL season, our team of rankers consist of:

  • Justin Stephens: @JustinFF_
  • Coach Schepps: @CoachSchepps
  • Mark Simon: @MTSimon
  • Dillon “Wicked” Carlson: @wicked_dynasty
  • Nate Wallen: @nate_dirt19
  • AJ Cola: @AJ_FFball

Each of these analysts ranked their top 60 RBs for the up-and-coming 2024 Redraft Season. Then Mark – the wizard behind the scenes – worked his mathematical and statistical magic to aggregate those rankings on the website for you at toiletstotitles.com.

Justin and Mark discussed the top 11 Running Backs on this week’s episode (embedded above) of the Toilets to Titles Flagship Show on Tuesday Night and were even joined by award winning FantasyPros ranker Matt Donnelly of Rotoballer and Betsperts.  Then this week, Justin broke down RBs 12 – 25 on the list!  In case you missed it, here is a rundown of some of our reasoning for our rankings 15 – 28…

Consensus Overall RB Redraft Rankings (15 – 28):

***It is important to note that we are basing these numbers and thoughts off of PPR Redraft formats, but the stats and many of the opinions will still work for most other Redraft leagues as well.

15) <tied> James Cook (BUF)

Only a 55% snap share, but still had the 4th most yards on the season with 1,122 and 8th in receiving yards with 445. Only 4 Goal line carries all season. 19th in fantasy points per game. Cook played all 17 games finishing as the RB 12 on the season.

  • High – 8 (Wicked)
  • Low – 20 (Nate)
  • Justin & AJ – 14
  • Mark – 16
  • Coach – 17

Justin’s thoughts – Cook is talented enough, but a combination of Josh Allen taking rushes (especially at the goal line) and Sean McDermott’s offense seemingly requiring a need for a split backfield, it’s enough to scare me away from Cook as an RB1. He’s also a bit inconsistent. But his big play ability in a big offense where he will likely see a boost in targets is enough for me to still want him as a high-end RB2, especially if my RB1 is solid and reliable.

15) <tied> Kenneth Walker (SEA)

54.5% snap share. 19th in rushing yards per game, 21st in receiving yards per game. The Seahawks ran the 2nd fewest rushing plays last season. 4th most yards per reception, the 3rd most evaded tackles and the 2nd highest juke rate.

  • High – 11 (Wicked)
  • Low – 19 (Justin)
  • Coach – 13
  • Mark – 14
  • AJ & Nate – 16

Justin’s thoughts – Walkers individual numbers that are mostly based off of raw individual ability are really good. The dude is an athlete. But the team around him isn’t there yet and the best running back situations typically require the team around you to succeed to help your fantasy numbers more. He’s probably better than the RB19 overall that I ranked him at but having 7 games outside of an RB2 finish last season and not seeing much more light at the end of the tunnel in the way of team improvements around him, makes me want to avoid having him on my roster at all. But if he’s still there at RB19 and I’m already confident in my other 2 RBs, then his talent alone makes him worth the risk.

17) Aaron Jones (MIN)

26th in fantasy PPG last season. Only 2 games last year as an RB1. I wish I could find metrics he was good at last year, but they don’t exist. He played in 11 games last year finishing as the RB 37 overall.

  • High – 13 (Mark & Nate)
  • Low – 19 (Coach)
  • Justin & AJ – 17
  • AJ – 18

Justin’s thoughts – First time he wasn’t an RB1 in fantasy PPG since his rookie year in 2017. Don’t let the recency bias of Week 18 and the 2 playoff games fool you. He did have some injury issues last season and the Packers seemed committed to the passing game first mentality, but Jones is going from one bad rushing situation into another bad rushing situation. He will need the combination of Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy to play successfully to keep the box manageable for him, and I don’t see that happening. With little competition he should at least have a small bounce back from opportunity alone.

18) David Montgomery (DET)

5th most red zone touches (Note, his Red Zone touches did drop in favor of Gibbs as the season went on, but Monty was still getting more red zone touches than Gibbs at the end of the season as well). Only 3 games where he didn’t finish as an RB2 or better and one of those was a game he left early due to injury. 4th most TDs. Most other stats suggest he is very TD dependent if Gibbs is healthy.

  • High – 16 (Justin & Wicked)
  • Low – 22 (Nate)
  • AJ – 17
  • Coach & Mark – 18

Justin’s thoughts – This will be Montgomery’s 6th season in the NFL, but he’ll only be 27 years old. He has finished as an RB2 or better in each of the last 4 years in fantasy PPG, even when he wasn’t always the main starter. Gibbs was incredible last season to the point that he is our consensus RB5 overall here at T2T, but Montgomery will still get enough production to be a solid RB2 nearly every week and if Gibbs happens to get injured, Monty will be a solid Mid-Low RB1 that you are getting at an RB2 price.

19) Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)

Stevenson finished with less impressive stats per game in 2023 than he did in 2022. 1 less reception per game, 1 less yard per carry, and 2.6 fantasy points per game. He was the RB 27 overall in fantasy points per game last season while splitting nearly even snap shares with Zeke Elliot in a lot of games. Stevenson played in 12 games finishing as the RB 35 overall and RB 27 in PPG.

  • High – 12 (Coach)
  • Low – 25 (Wicked & Nate)
  • Justin – 13
  • Mark – 19
  • AJ – 20

Justin’s thoughts – Stevenson gets to shake the split of Zeke, but now he gets a highly underrated Antonio Gibson to battle for touches with. However, Gibson does have a very similar yearly stat line and capabilities as Rhamondre, except Rhamondre appears to be the better goal line back. He should be able to regain many of the goal line carries that he had lost to Zeke last season and that should be enough to get him back into the RB2 area again.

20)  D’Andre Swift (CHI)

In Philly last season, Swift had the 5th most rushing yards (1,049), 11th in breakaway runs, and 24th in fantasy points per game. He played in all of the fantasy relevant games sitting out only week 18 and finished as the RB 20 overall.

  • High – 17 (Nate)
  • Low – 22 (Coach & AJ)
  • Mark & Justin – 21
  • Wicked – 18

Justin’s thoughts – Many of the per snap stats that Swift had in Detroit were better in 2022 than he had in 2023 with Philly. A lot of that was due to his lower efficiency rate in snaps from the shotgun. In the Philly offense he ran 93% of his runs from out of the shotgun formation. This is because Head Coach Nick Sirianni does not allow room for creativity in his offense. That was only 40% in Detroit. Last year Chicago fell in between those two numbers, running roughly 60% of their carries from the shotgun formation. It’s uncertain what the Bears will do with this new look offense, but certainly Swift has to fall well short of the 93% shotgun rushes he had in Philly which should help his efficiency. I can also see Swift losing more carries than people might expect to the committee of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. He is explosive enough and has enough potential to be a high end RB2- low end RB1 any given week, that I am ok with him if I can get him as my low end RB2 or even RB3 on my roster. (Remember, in redraft I draft RBs early and often, so if I am rostering Swift, he will be my RB3 making him even more valuable and worth the risk.)

21) Alvin Kamara (NO)

2nd in targets for RBs. 9th in red zone touches. 3rd in fantasy points per game. 2nd in receptions and 6th in receiving yards. He played in 13 games finishing as the RB11 overall.

  • High – 18 (Nate)
  • Low – 24 (Wicked)
  • AJ – 19
  • Mark – 20
  • Coach – 21
  • Justin – 22

Justin’s thoughts – Jamaal Williams is toast. He’s done. Kendre Miller will be a nice replacement for Kamara when he moves on from New Orleans. But for now, Kamara will continue to be highly underrated for where he will likely end up in fantasy stats.

22) James Conner (ARI)

6th in rushing yards, 12th in TDs, 13th in fantasy points per game, 45th in receiving yards and 38th in receptions. He played in 13 games finishing as the RB18 overall.

  • High – 20 (Coach)
  • Low – 31 (Mark)
  •  AJ & Nate – 21
  • Wicked – 22 
  • Justin – 24

Justin’s thoughts – Conner has never been a sexy fantasy option, but he’s pretty steadily a nice RB2 option. He likely has more competition for opportunities coming this season as the Cardinals spent a 3rd round draft pick on Trey Benson, but I believe Conner will still get enough of a run for at least one more season to remain a low-end RB2 option.

23) Nick Chubb (CLE)

Chubb finished as the RB10 overall in Week 1 last season against the Bengals before going down with a season ending knee injury in Week 2 against the Steelers.

  • High – 14 (Nate)
  • Low – 31 (AJ)
  • Wicked – 20
  • Mark – 23
  • Coach – 28
  • Justin – 30

Justin’s thoughts – I have a strict rule when it comes to ACL comebacks. It takes 1 full year to get on the field or start practicing effectively at full speed, and then another 6 months to be almost as good as you were before. Chubb will likely be ready if not by Week 1, then at some point early in the season in 2024. I want to give it the rest of the 2024 season before I want to trust him again. I’m not saying I won’t start him from time to time as a backup or flex in tight spots, but he will likely be inconsistent enough during his comeback that you won’t want to start him on a weekly basis.

24) Najee Harris (PIT)

The Steelers ran the ball the 9th most in the league last season. Harris had the 6th most carries, and the 8th most red zone touches in the league. 7th in rushing yards, but only 44th in receiving yards, 34th in receptions and 30th in fantasy points per game. Harris played in all 17 games last season finishing as the RB23 overall (1 spot behind Jaylen Warren who also played in all 17 games).

  • High – 21 (Wicked)
  • Low – 34 (Justin)
  • Mark – 22
  • Coach & AJ – 23
  • Nate – 24

Justin’s thoughts – Najee’s fantasy value in PPR is extremely hampered by Jaylen Warren, who had more than twice as many receptions as Najee. Warren also had 1.2 more yards per rushing attempt as well. I believe that not only is Warren the new hotness in Pittsburgh, but he will also likely outscore Najee on the season in fantasy. Warren is the better value pick here in my opinion. I’m tired of Najee Harris letting me down.

25) Zamir White (LAV)

In a backup role last season, Zamir played in all 17 games finishing with only 4.3 fantasy points per game and as the RB 56 overall.

  • High – 24 (Mark)
  • Low – 28 (Justin)
  • Coach – 25
  • Wicked – 26
  • AJ & Nate – 27

Justin’s thoughts -With very little competition for carries, White should be a weekly flex start out of opportunity alone.

26) Tony Pollard (TEN)

8th in receptions on the 3rd most routes run by a RB in the league. Only about 3 evaded tackles per game was ranked 16th overall. 9th highest stuffed run rate. 9 weeks as an RB 2 or better, 7 of those were as an RB1. 8 games where he was a fantasy RB 3 or worse. He played in all 17 games finishing 23rd in fantasy points per game with 13.1 and finishing as the RB 14 overall.

  • High – 19 (Wicked)
  • Low – 30 (Coach)
  • Nate – 26
  • Mark – 27
  • Justin & AJ – 29

Justin’s thoughts – Pollard joins a new team this season with the Titans after spending 5 seasons with the Cowboys, 4 behind Zeke Elliott and last season as the main starter. The odd part of all of this is that Tyjae Spears is a man that many thought to be the next big thing in Tennessee in terms of his skat back and receiving down RB work and Pollard has many of the same skill traits and abilities as Spears. It will be interesting to see how these 2 are used, but I see a serious split. I also personally believe that Spears is the better RB, but Pollard will still get more of the workload since they are paying him to be the starter. In half of his games last season as the de facto RB1 for the high powered and pass happy Cowboys offense who had the 3rd best positive game script numbers in the league, he still couldn’t finish as an RB 2 or better in fantasy. Let me break that down… He is known as a receiving back and they threw the ball the 7th most in the league, and he still wasn’t good half of the games. If you view him as the starting running back, then with such a high positive game script, he should have had a lot of rushing attempts when they were up, and he still wasn’t good in half of his game. Now he will be playing in Tennessee. Even if he is the de facto starter again, it is a much worse offense for sure, but I’m not sure he will have even 75% of the touches that he had in Dallas considering the talent of Spears.

27) Raheem Mostert (MIA)

5th in red zone touches, 1st in TDs with 21, 4th in fantasy points per game. 7th in juke rate, 4th in breakaway runs, 10th in evaded tackles. He played in 15 games last season finishing as the RB 5 overall.

  • High – 23 (Justin)
  • Low – 33 (Nate)
  • Mark – 25
  • AJ – 26
  • Coach & Wicked – 27

Justin’s thoughts – I am the highest on Mostert within our T2T redraft rankings team, and I’m thrilled with that. This tells me that many other people may be too low on him as well and I can compare my ranking of him at 23 to his ADP at the time of my redraft league’s draft and take him somewhere in between to ensure that I get him. Many people have him ranked low because of his age and the emergence of De’Von Achane last season. I agree that Achane will be a solid RB this season. I have him ranked 8th overall in my rankings because I’m not even scared of injuries with him. You can’t let one season of injuries that weren’t even that serious, scare you off. But even in the 7 full games that Achane and Mostert played together, Mostert finished as the RB 2, 42, 11, 18, 5, 10, and 21 in each of those games, while Achane finished as the RB 1, 5, 4, 3, 24, 29, 51 in those same games. So, in 6 of 7 games, Mostert was an RB2 or better to Achane’s 5 of 7 and they both had only 1 bad game in that stretch. And as far as the age scare at 32 years old, Mostert may be on the downhill slope for sure, but even with that he still had the crazy-good evaded tackles, juke rate, and breakaway runs that we listed above. These are stats that are typically dominated by younger backs. This shows us the Dolphins offense is so good that any back in that backfield is going to be an RB2 or flex worthy any week if they are going to get any decent number of opportunities. Also, Mostert’s 32 years of age is more like 24 and 1/2 in terms of the mileage on his legs. He only had 47 total touches in the first 7 years of his career (40 of those in 2018) and only 2 touches in 2021. He’s still got some juice in him if he stays in this offense.

28) Javonte Williams (DEN)

50.1% snap share was one of the lowest in the league among team starters. 9th most red zone touches. 31st in fantasy points per game. 16th in receptions and 11th in target share. 9th best breakaway run rate. Williams played in 16 games finishing as the RB 29 overall on the season.

  • High – 23 (Nate)
  • Low – 39 (Mark)
  • Justin – 26
  • AJ – 28
  • Coach – 29
  • Wicked – 31

Justin’s thoughts – In 2021, Williams was progressively getting better as the season went on after starting slow to start his rookie season. In 2022, Williams went down after only 4 games played. Last season clearly wasn’t a good one, but he will now be almost 2 full seasons removed from the major 2022 knee injury he sustained. The Broncos were also not a very effective team on either side of the ball, making it difficult to sustain a consistent run game. They had one of the worst game script rates in the league. That aspect doesn’t look to improve much in 2024, but we know it can’t be worse. The Broncos also lost Jerry Jeudy this offseason and rookie Bo Nix could easily fall into the typical rookie dump off mentality that most rookies do early on. I could see a slight increase in efficiency in the run game, but a larger increase in the passing game for Williams. This should make him a value pick as a Mid RB 3 with low-end RB 2 potential. Please let us not forget the hype and potential this guy had before that devastating injury. Many have bounced back from it, and he will too.

Stay tuned for more as the guys will continue to add rankings, episodes, and articles for all of their 2024 Redraft Rankings at all of the typical Redraft Fantasy Football positions.

 

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