Now let’s talk dynasty rankings…
The Toilets to Titles (T2T) team has just released their consensus dynasty rankings over on the Fusion Fantasy Football website, Fusionffb.com. John also had Josh and Rich on the podcast, episode 66, to discuss how their individual ranks compared to the consensus top 12 ranks. They also talked about how they went about configuring their rankings. If you want to hear about that, please go check out the episode on Spotify, Podbean, or you can see the video on the YouTube channel. Just search Toilets to Titles and don’t forget to hit that subscribe button on those platforms.
Now, I couldn’t think of a better way to get to know the Toilets to Titles team and for them to learn a little about me than to dig a little deeper into their dynasty rankings and arbitrarily and with no mercy pick them apart rank by rank. I may give them a chance to defend themselves in another article but maybe I won’t. We’ll see. In all seriousness though, John and the guys covered the consensus top 12. But for this article, I am going to look beyond that and discuss ranks outside the consensus top 12 both individual analyst’s ranks and consensus ranks and impart my two cents. Just for transparency’s sake, I do not have published dynasty ranks. So, you can’t hold me accountable for my opinions, yet.
During the podcast, Rich talked about why he is highest on Ryan Tannehill at QB9. To hear that, check out Episode 66 of the podcast and you will hear many of the reasons I also love Tannehill for this year and beyond. But I am not here to talk about that. I’m here to talk about how I am flabbergasted with Justin’s rank of Ryan Tannehill at QB24. No, that is not a typo. Yes, I typed it correctly, QB24. 2-4.
After a quick investigation into Justin’s QB ranks, I came to discover that ranked above Tannehill at 18 and 21 are Davis Mills and Kyle Trask, respectively. Rookie backups are ranked above not only a starting quarterback in the NFL but the QB8 in fantasy points per game(fppg) last year in 2020 according to FantasyPros. Oh and he was the QB4 in fppg in 2019 after taking over the starting duties from Marcus Mariota in week 7. Tannehill has arrived as a force to be reckoned with in the NFL since he was released from the clutches of the Miami Dolphins and coach Adam Gase. He is only 32(so, age isn’t a concern to me), just hitting his stride and coming into his own, and now has just been gifted Julio freaking Jones to round out a trifecta of monstrously formidable offensive skill position players including Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. Ryan Tannehill has never been in a more solidified position to dominate in fantasy, even though he has been for the last two years but also to remain a fantasy QB1 for at least the next 3-4 years. I am truly in awe of his rank of QB24 behind guys like Davis Mills(QB18), Mac(aroni) Jones(QB19), Jordan Love(QB20), and Kyle Trask(QB21). Justin, I need to know why you hate Ryan Tannehill so much. Did he hurt you? How has he wronged you? I want to help you heal. But deep down I really hope this is just a mistake and it can be fixed and I can pretend like this never happened.
Another quarterback ranking I can’t seem to wrap my head around and I’d like to point out is Nate’s rank of Tua Tagovailoa at QB35. Now, I know he wasn’t great last year in 2020. But come on, man. The only redeeming quality of this rank is that he, basically, has nowhere to go but up. I have a good feeling he will climb the ranks with his 2021 performance. The Dolphins are building around him by adding Fuller and drafting Waddle, as they should for a 5th overall pick. He’s another year removed from a horrific hip injury and is going to have a full offseason to establish himself with the team. I understand being skeptical and hedging your bets but I think it’s a disservice to have Tua QB35 while you have Matt Ryan at QB10 and Sam Darnold at QB11. Nate is not the only team member to have this low of an opinion on Tua but he does have the lowest by a decent margin. I can understand devaluing him but I think he holds a much higher value in dynasty leagues(especially in SF) than what is represented by a rank of QB35.
We’re going to start the RB ranks a little differently with a rank that I really love and wish I had the balls to bury this player as deep as Justin has. Justin has Michael Carter ranked as RB66. Bravo, good sir. This may make up for that Tannehill ranking. Alright, well, maybe not but either way I wanted to mention this rank. Carter is a smaller-sized back at 5’9” and 199lbs, per Pro-football-reference, who was a 4th round draft pick which, historically, does not bode well for success in fantasy or the NFL, and joins the backfield of a likely mediocre team led by a rookie QB. He does come into his situation known for his receiving skills which could give him a higher floor in PPR leagues but I can’t foresee his ceiling being significantly higher than his floor. The Jets had ample opportunity in the draft to pick up a running back at which they are disparate but chose to go other ways and took the best of what was left in round 4. The Jets investment in Carter is minimal and I believe he will be a running back a dynasty manager will continually talk themselves into year after year. Mirroring the career of a journeyman back who never ever lives up to the hype like his teammate Tevin Coleman. I have absolutely zero excitement for Michael Carter and I think Justin is justified to just bury him in his dynasty ranks and just forget about him.
A few other RB ranks worth considering…
D’Andre Swift – I do not believe Swift is a dynasty RB1 as of now. Some of the most crucial years of his career will be spent on a team that is rebuilding, losing, and being led by Jared Goff. I think the Lions offense is going to have limited scoring opportunities during their rebuilding process and that will hold Swift’s numbers down. 2023 will be the time they can get rid of Goff the easiest and can’t see them being much better until then. I am not saying he can’t push to be a RB2 this season and 2022 but I would pump the brakes on RB1 expectations from Swift. I would prefer to see Swift sitting comfortably with at least a RB2 rank.
Austin Ekeler – Currently consensus ranked RB20. Now our ranks are not marked as PPR or not so maybe I’m off base but Ekeler, in PPR formats, has a receiving workload to be a top 5 back for at least the next few years as Herbert begins to lead the Chargers offense into contention with their AFC West rivals. Even with the possible injury risk which I don’t think exists, I think RB20 is a pure misrepresentation of Ekeler’s upside. I would prefer to see him closer to the RB1 cluster.
Wide receiver has become a deeper and deeper position in fantasy as NFL teams have continued to dial up more and more 3 and 4 WR sets in pass heavier offenses than they have historically. This makes it harder to filter through all the options in the top 24 at wide receiver and find the true difference makers at the position. That’s why I am going to focus on the WR2’s and show where some of these receivers seem to be losing value but I don’t believe they should be.
Cue the Matthew McConaughey meme from Wolf of Wall Street and the guys “Gotta pump those numbers up” on Allen Robinson’s rank. By no means, do I think this is an abhorrent crime against Robinson. The consensus rank for Robinson is WR16 and the individual ranks are between 12-16. The team is pretty even on him and there is not one rank weighing him down to WR16. He is one of these wide receivers that are difference makers and should be valued as a top 12 receiver. Robinson is going into his 28 year old season in the height of his career with possibly his best quarterback situation, ever, even if Andy Dalton is the starter. He has played all 16 games in 4 separate seasons and in each of those seasons has received 150+ targets. But those targets were coming from the likes of Trubisky, Foles, and Bortles. Now with, most likely, Justin Fields throwing him the ball his ceiling is higher than it has ever been. I do understand that an extension doesn’t look like it’s going to happen this season. So he may be moving on from Chicago and from having Fields as a quarterback but he has proven several times that a top 10 season is possible regardless of who his quarterback is. I will not be discounting him unless I see some sort of dropoff in production or performance and until then he is at the least a top 12 wide receiver to me.
A few other WR ranks worth considering…
Keenan Allen – I believe Allen’s rank of WR15 does not correctly reflect the type of difference he will make for your fantasy team as long as he remains the top receiver for the Chargers. A now Herbert led offense could lead to several top 12 seasons before his production begins to decline. He is a few years closer to the point of decline and has an injury history but has been on the field for all 16 games in 3 of his last 4 seasons. He missed 2 games last year due to injury. Allen is a receiver that is going to win you weeks and provide enough of a floor to not lose you weeks. I don’t think he necessarily needs to be raised in the ranks but I wanted to remind everyone that his value should not be overlooked and rather appreciated for what he can still produce in the next couple seasons.
Terry McLaurin – McLaurin has a consensus rank of WR12 and I’m not quite sure he belongs in the top 12. He is a great route runner with excellent hands and is dynamic on the field but I don’t ever see him living up to top 12 wide receiver value. He has not had good quarterback play so far in his career and Fitzpatrick isn’t the answer to his quarterback woes. Difference makers don’t let their situation hold them back. McLaurin hasn’t shown me that he has the elite world beater upside yet to deserve top 12 respect. There are too many pieces that need to fall into place for him to reach a WR1 ceiling season for me to value him as such. He is still young and has plenty of time to find that ceiling but until then I would prefer to see him as a WR2 and maybe swap places with a player like Allen Robinson.
What is there to say about tight ends? There are three tight ends, Kelce, Waller, and Kittle, that are truly elite and absolutely provide a positional advantage. Kyle Pitts should become one of the elite and in dynasty there is definitely an argument for him being the overall TE1 but tight ends usually need time to develop in the NFL before they become productive. So be wary of overvaluing Pitts based on what he may be one day. T.J. Hockenson and Mark Andrews have flashed showing some prowess at their position but probably won’t ever pay off for their current prices.
After those six, who the hell knows. There are about 14 other tight ends that could end up in the top 12 in any given season but those stats won’t produce fantasy numbers that ever excite anyone regardless of how cheap they were. Try and find some upside and conviction for a few of those low end tight ends, if you can’t get an elite tight end, and stick to them. Don’t be the fantasy manager that hoards tight ends. It’s not a good look on anyone. Trying to determine who should be started week in and week out is going to be frustrating enough. There is no need to make it more difficult than it needs to be.